Share Market Outlook: US-India Trade Talks, TCS Results To Steer Markets This Week

New Delhi: Investors are gearing up for a crucial week on Dalal Street, with multiple domestic and global triggers likely to sway sentiment. The expiry of the 90-day suspension of US reciprocal tariffs on July 9 is being closely watched, especially in the context of ongoing India-US trade negotiations.

The suspension was tied to a 26 percent import duty on Indian goods, initially announced during Donald Trump’s presidency. A resolution or extension of the tariff pause could significantly impact trade-related sectors like IT, pharma, and auto.

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Q1 Earnings Season Begins with TCS

On the domestic front, all eyes will be on quarterly earnings. IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Avenue Supermarts are set to announce their Q1 FY26 results this week. Analysts believe the results will set the tone for the broader earnings season.

“Markets will look for signs of an earnings recovery to justify current valuations,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Key Global Cues to Watch

Investors will also monitor global events such as the release of the US FOMC minutes on July 9 and the movement in Brent crude oil and the rupee-dollar exchange rate, which could affect FII activity and broader market trends.

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Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, emphasized the global importance of the US-India trade talks. “This deadline could reshape trade dynamics and investor sentiment globally,” he said.

Consolidation Mode Likely to Continue

Despite a drop in benchmarks last week — with the BSE Sensex falling 626.01 points (0.74%) and the NSE Nifty declining 176.8 points (0.68%) — experts expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase this week.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said, “Stock-specific action will dominate as investors look forward to business updates ahead of full earnings season.”

FII Flow to Depend on Trade and Results

V.K. Vijayakumar of Geojit added, “FII buying will depend on whether a trade deal materializes and if earnings data shows signs of recovery. Any disappointment could impact flows and market direction.”

(With PTI Inputs)