Purge, paranoia, and power: Inside China's black box - Is Xi Jinping losing control?

TL;DR:

• Xi Jinping still rules unchallenged, but his control now relies more on loyalty than performance.
• Top generals purged, including close allies, fueling questions about cracks in the military.
• Xi’s visibility is down, and key commissions are less active - a shift or a retreat?
• Rumours swirl, but most are speculation fueled by secrecy and wishful thinking.
• Public unrest and economic stress are rising, especially among youth and the middle class.
• No successor in sight - Xi looks set to rule indefinitely, despite mounting pressure.

Driving the news

In recent months, speculation about the stability of President Xi Jinping’s rule has reached a fever pitch, fueled by high-profile purges in China’s military, unusual absences from key international summits, and a steady churn of rumours about elite infighting. But is Xi really losing control-or is the rumour mill just a symptom of the opacity that has long defined Chinese politics?

Rumours about the inner workings of the Communist Party are nothing new. As Karishma Vaswani of Bloomberg notes, “Hearsay about the inner workings of the Politburo has a long tradition of being wholly inaccurate.”

Speculation surged after Xi skipped the BRICS summit in Brazil - a first since taking office - and continued as over 20 senior military officers vanished or were removed from posts, including Admiral Miao Hua and Politburo member He Weidong.

But experts warn: The truth is more complex than the rumours suggest.

Why it matters

• Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
• Some analysts call Xi 'president-for-life'. He controls the party, the state, and the military. If there’s instability in his leadership, it would be the most significant political event in China since Mao - with ripple effects for the global economy, US-China relations, and regional stability in Asia.
• No clear successor: Xi’s refusal to groom or name an heir creates a dangerous vacuum. A sudden health emergency could spark chaos at the top of the Communist Party.
• Opaque signals: Beijing watchers have turned back to “Pekingology,” the Cold War-era practice of decoding state media, absences, and seating charts to assess political power - a sign of just how tightly controlled information has become.
• High stakes for Taiwan: The purges have also affected units reportedly tasked with preparing for a Taiwan invasion. That has caught the attention of US intelligence, which sees cracks in China’s chain of command - or at least in its discipline.

The big picture
Despite the rumours, most analysts agree Xi remains firmly in charge. But his governing style appears to be shifting - subtly and strategically.

“He guides the world’s second-biggest economy and its largest armed forces seemingly unchallenged,” the Economist wrote. “Yet analysts now whisper that Mr Xi’s governing style may be changing in subtle ways.”

• Delegation over domination: Xi is sending lieutenants - like Li Qiang, Cai Qi, and Ding Xuexiang - to manage critical commissions and international trips. In 2025, he skipped BRICS and sent Li instead.
• Decline in meetings: Some of Xi’s signature commissions, including the one on economic reform, haven’t publicly met since August 2024. Communiqués are shorter, suggesting fewer decisions.
• Purges as a strategy: Over 400,000 officials are under investigation since April 2024, according to the Economist. In the military, top brass close to Xi have been targeted - a sign he may be preemptively removing threats inside his own camp.This tightening of control, even within his base, points to a leader who’s preparing to rule indefinitely - but from a more remote, less visible perch.
  

What they’re saying

• Not everyone buys the coup chatter. Most seasoned observers argue Xi is not on the verge of collapse — but that doesn’t mean everything is stable either.
• “Despite the noise, no one has credibly explained how a leader who dominates every significant CCP organization could be toppled,” writes Michael Cunningham of the Lowy Institute.
• “He will likely rule China until he ‘goes to meet Marx,’ as the saying goes,” Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis wrote in a report. “At every stage, he’s defied convention to solidify his grip.”

Still, challenges are mounting:

• Retired Party elders: Like Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan have criticized Xi’s economic policies and mishandling of US relations, according to Radio Free Asia. While they lack direct power, their discontent underscores elite unease.
• Red aristocrats” or princelings, including those in exile, are reportedly sharing kompromat with foreign intelligence agencies - a risky but potentially destabilizing factor.
• Middle-class anger is rising amid a stagnant economy, rising unemployment, and censorship over local scandals like the student suicide in Shaanxi Province that led to violent protests.
• PLA grumbling: While a military coup remains highly unlikely, the recent sidelining of high-ranking officers, many with ties to Xi from his Fujian days, suggests serious internal friction.
• Even the PLA Daily - the military’s official mouthpiece - recently promoted “collective leadership,” a not-so-subtle rebuke of Xi’s longstanding “one-man rule” mantra.

Between the lines
The growing perception that Xi may be centralizing too much power - even for an autocrat - could erode internal loyalty over time.

“Those chosen for their loyalty may lack experience, shy away from delivering bad news, or see opportunities for graft,” the Economist warned. Xi himself seemed to acknowledge this when he told the Politburo, “The string of self-revolution must be tightened even further.”

There is little evidence Xi has begun preparing for succession. That’s a red flag for analysts who recall how leadership vacuums in China have historically led to chaos - from Lin Biao’s plane crash in 1971 to post-Deng power struggles.

Instead, Xi appears to be reducing personal exposure while ensuring his ideological agenda is institutionalized through rules, written directives, and tightly controlled personnel decisions.

Some observers suggest this is a strategy for long-term rule: less presence, more permanence.

What’s next
The clearest signs of real trouble for Xi would be overt - not rumours.

“If some of Xi’s closest allies - Cai Qi or Ding Xuexiang - are targeted, that will be a more likely sign of trouble,” notes * Institute’s* Cunningham.

Right now, purged officials like He Weidong, though powerful, are not considered part of Xi’s innermost circle. Their fall suggests a shakeup - not a power struggle.

As Asia Society notes, Xi's refusal to name a successor is no accident. Installing one would weaken his grip and create a rival power center. Naming no one ensures everyone remains beholden to him - but also makes China’s future deeply uncertain.

And that uncertainty has consequences:

• For the economy: Xi’s mix of state-led stimulus and repression of private enterprise has underperformed. Even EV giants like BYD and SAIC are over-leveraged.
• For foreign relations: A softer tone with Washington, especially ahead of President Donald Trump’s inauguration, may reflect desperation rather than détente.
• For stability: As purges continue and confidence erodes, even within the elite, the line between strength and fear starts to blur.

The bottom line: So, is Xi Jinping losing control ?
Not exactly. But he is entering a phase where maintaining control requires more energy, more surveillance, more loyalty tests-and fewer missteps. He still commands the Party, the military, and the machinery of the state. But cracks are showing. Not enough to break him, yet-but enough to make the question impossible to ignore.

The emperor still rules. But he’s looking over his shoulder.

(With inputs from agencies)